Lever Time Premium

[00:00:00] David Sirota: This is Lever time. I'm David Sirota. Donald Trump's so-called one big beautiful Bill appears to be approaching the finish line in Washington DC as lawmakers frantically try to pass the legislation before the July 4th recess. Why the rush? Maybe because they don't want you to know. What's in the bill? On today's episode of Lever Time, I talked to the governor of one of the swing states that won Donald Trump the White House, and I ask him to explain exactly what this bill would do in real world terms and why he argues that the legislation is a betrayal of the very voters that gave Donald Trump the presidency.

[00:00:47] News Anchor: President Donald Trump says he wants Congress to pass his budget bill, known as the one big beautiful bill act by the 4th of July. It's an aggressive timeline that had this in it, working through the weekend as lawmakers raced to try to meet the deadline, but. The Bill's final passage is still uncertain.

[00:01:03] David Sirota: When I worked on Capitol Hill 25 years ago, there was this old rule of thumb. If a bill is hundreds of pages long and they're trying to speed it through Congress without anyone having time to even read it, then it's a good bet. It's not an honest piece of legislation designed to benefit the American public.

[00:01:22] It's more likely an attempt to pull off a heist that enriches donors and fleeces the rest of us. The Republican tax cut bill. Moving through Congress seems to fit that description. This is not merely a tax cut for rich people in every single way. It appears to be the oligarchs class war in legislative form.

[00:01:44] We've done a lot of reporting on the granular details of this legislation at the Lever, but let me just give you the big, broad strokes. The current bill would be, quote, the biggest reduction of funding for the federal safety net since at least the 1990s according to the Washington Post, which notes that the bill pays for?

[00:02:05] Its nearly $4 trillion price tag, $4 trillion. By slashing spending on Medicaid by about 18% and slashing spending on food stamps by about 20%. Consider a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office, Congress's own economic analysis agency that's run by a Republican. That report found that as a result of the house version of the legislation.

[00:02:32] The poorest 10th of Americans would lose $1,600 per year or nearly 4% of their income. The same report found that the richest 10th of American households would gain $12,000 per year, a gain of more than 2% of their income. Now maybe you're thinking this bill won't affect you because you are fortunate to not be among the lower income brackets hit hardest by this legislation.

[00:03:01] Well think again. There's no escape from legislation this big. It's gonna hit everyone in some way. Let me give you just one example. Electricity rates. Trump's legislation helps the fossil fuel industry by killing tax credits, reducing the cost of building renewable energy, like wind and solar energy sources that are now often cheaper than natural gas and coal.

[00:03:28] The bill also kills the electric vehicle tax credit. Now, a new analysis from energy innovation finds that annual electricity and transportation costs will rise in every state. In the continental United States, if this bill passes, that includes Republican states like Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Texas, which could see costs skyrocket by up to 18%.

[00:03:54] Meanwhile, the same report estimates that reduced investments in clean energy will kill off 830,000 jobs by 2030. And slash America's GDP by more than $1 trillion over the next decade. I could go on here, but you get the point. This bill is an absolute wrecking ball, and it seems even some Trump allies are admitting it.

[00:04:19] For instance, there's billionaire Elon Musk, the guy who bankrolled Trump's election campaign. Despite the fact that this bill would likely give Musk some pretty big tax cuts, he tweeted that the legislation is quote utterly insane, and he wrote that the bill quote will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country.

[00:04:43] In response to the cuts to renewable energy programs and the attempts to boost fossil fuels, Musk wrote it gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future. Musk is now threatening to fund primary challenges against any lawmakers who support the bill. Then as if out of nowhere came North Carolina's Republican Senator, a usually reliable MAGA vote, who suddenly touched off chaos on Capitol Hill when he defected with a fiery floor speech about the proposed Medicaid cuts.

[00:05:18] Tom Tillis: So what do I tell? 663, uh, thousand people. In two years or three years, when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding's not. That's right.

[00:05:31] David Sirota: If you can believe it. This is super conservative Republican Senator Tom Tillis on the Senate floor.

[00:05:37] Tom Tillis: Now Republicans are about to make a mistake on healthcare and betraying a promise.

[00:05:46] It is inescapable that this bill in its current form. Will betray the very promise that Donald J. Trump made. In the Oval Office when I was there with

[00:05:57] David Sirota: Trump, Trump immediately after threatened Tillis with a primary challenge and Tillis announced his retirement. As of this recording, the bill is hanging on by the thinnest thread in the Senate, and amid all the chaos and the legislative machinations and the horse trading, I keep coming back to a simple question, why?

[00:06:18] Why are Republicans doing this? Think about the 2024 election, Donald Trump and Republican. Up and down the ballot presented themselves as populists aiming to turn their party into the party of the working class. When most people voted in that election, were they really voting for this? Were Donald Trump's voters really casting a vote for him, wanting him to throw them off Medicaid and jack up their electricity bills, all to give his big donors a tax cut.

[00:06:53] To answer that question, I called up my old childhood Powell from one of the most important swing states in America. He knows a thing or two about Trump voters. Donald Trump is

[00:07:03] Josh Shapiro: someone who keeps attacking our fellow Americans. Stop shit talking America. Stop talking us down. That's after the break.

[00:07:13] David Sirota: How you doing, man?

[00:07:14] Good. How are you? I'm good. Thanks for doing this. I appreciate it. I'm happy to do it. This is my buddy Josh. We grew up together in Pennsylvania. We played a lot of basketball. Josh has plenty of opinions on things. He's actually known as Josh from Abington when he calls into Philly Sports Talk radio shows.

[00:07:30] But today. I wasn't calling him to shoot the shit about the Phillies or the Sixers. Josh is actually Josh Shapiro, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania. So I was calling him to figure out what this bill will do to a typical state like Pennsylvania, and I wanted to know from him whether he thinks Republican voters in places like Pennsylvania voters who gave Trump the presidency, whether they really thought this is what they were voting for.

[00:07:59] What you're about to hear is my phone call with Josh Shapiro between his meetings trying to finalize the state budget. It was recorded on the fly, so the audio is a bit rough, but I managed to get some answers to my questions. Okay, that's, that sounds, you sound great. Okay. Ready? Great. Alright, here we go.

[00:08:15] First of all. Talk to us about what this bill will do in real world terms to a state like yours.

[00:08:23] Josh Shapiro: Look, Donald Trump and the Republicans in DC are trying to ram through this bill that is not only bad policy, and I know a lot of people are talking about the broad policy scopes. I'm looking at this as the governor of Pennsylvania and I can tell you this is gonna do real damage to our commonwealth.

[00:08:41] Let, let me explain. We are gonna lose access to healthcare for 510,000 people, including 310,000 people who are gonna lose Medicaid. To put that in some context for you, 3.1 million Pennsylvanians, take advantage of Medicaid, 310,000. We're just gonna lose their healthcare. And then when it comes to food assistance, 140,000 Pennsylvanians are gonna lose.

[00:09:09] Access to food assistance. I mean, these are real people, David. These are people who rely on this support, who are working, who are doing everything. We ask of them, and they're gonna get screwed by this. In addition to that, when you slash Medicaid remember Medicaid or the primary funders for a whole bunch of our hospitals, and I've got 25 hospitals in rural Pennsylvania.

[00:09:36] Who are underwater, right? So they're not making money each year, and more than 50% of their revenues each year come from Medicaid. So you go slash Medicaid to these rural hospitals. I got 25 rural hospitals that are likely to close. That's just on the healthcare side. On the job side, 26,000 Pennsylvanians.

[00:09:57] Could be outta work if this becomes laws, including, by the way, thousands of union building trades because they work in our energy industry. And this bill gets rid of a whole bunch of funding, $3 billion to be exact of energy projects in Pennsylvania. That's a big deal. And remember, we are a net energy exporter in Pennsylvania.

[00:10:19] We're trying very hard to move from coal into cleaner sources of energy, and this is gonna make that even harder and put, you know, 26,000 people outta work and. At the end of the day, why are they doing this? They're doing this to give a tax cut to people at the highest income brackets who frankly don't need it.

[00:10:40] And, and David, I'll, I'll be real with you. They're not really asking

[00:10:43] David Sirota: for it either. What do you make of the argument that Donald Trump won the election? I. This is the mandate that he has to essentially do this. That people somehow, I mean, do you believe people think that they voted for this? I mean, you're a Pennsylvania state, that that essentially helped decide the entire election?

[00:11:01] Yeah. I'm just curious if you think people who went into the polls thought they were voting for this.

[00:11:06] Josh Shapiro: I mean, look, let's, let's examine the record here. So Donald Trump won Pennsylvania, um, and he's screwing over the people. Who supported him. Remember before I said 310,000 Pennsylvanians would lose Medicaid coverage?

[00:11:20] 154,000 of them would lose Medicaid in counties that Trump won. I mean, look at, look at Westmoreland County. Trump got 64% of the vote and he's about to knock 6,867 Pennsylvanians off of Medicaid just in that one county, right? And the list goes on and on and on to other counties. I don't think these Pennsylvanians voted for Medicaid cuts.

[00:11:48] I don't think they voted to eliminate energy jobs. And do you know why? I know that David, because Donald Trump promised he would never cut Medicaid, that he would increase jobs in energy and he would protect access. I. To healthcare for rural communities that trusted him, who believed in him, and now he's going and reneging on his promises to the very people that helped put him in office.

[00:12:13] David Sirota: You have a Republican senator in Pennsylvania. Are you talking to him about this bill? What is he saying about this bill? If this bill is as bad as you're portraying it and, and, and I certainly think it is. What is his argument? Why is he voting for this?

[00:12:26] Josh Shapiro: So look, the data I shared with you, um, not just on Westmoreland County, but every county that's gonna lose access to healthcare.

[00:12:34] Um, we've got all kinds of data that we've, uh, shared in terms of energy projects in Clearfield County and Cambria County, Bradford County. These are. Rural counties that overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump. I've shared all of that information with granularity about how Pennsylvanians would be impacted county by county with our entire congressional delegation, our two senators, as well as our members of Congress.

[00:13:00] I've also had private communication with them to explain to them the, the devastating impact this would have. On, uh, Pennsylvania. Now, David, I gotta say, some of them will say, oh, gov, we're not knocking anybody off of Medicaid. All we're doing is stopping. These are their words, not mine. Illegal aliens, again, their word, not mine.

[00:13:23] Illegal aliens from getting healthcare and we're getting rid of waste, fraud. Abuse. Right. You've heard them say this, David, over and over again. Well, I've tried to also explain to them that, um, we lead the nation when it comes to rooting out. Waste fraud abuse. And by the way, it's illegal in Pennsylvania for an undocumented immigrant to even get access to Medicaid.

[00:13:45] In fact, our Department of Human Services reviews every Medicaid application, um, in a thorough review process that involves more than 10 different checks, including citizenship status. So David, not only are they aware. Of the negative impacts it's gonna have in their communities, the communities that they represent, um, their rationale for doing it, their stated reason for doing it.

[00:14:09] Is total bullshit. And we've shared that with them as well.

[00:14:12] David Sirota: So then the question becomes why are they the house members and and your repub Republican house members, Republican senators, why are they still in support of this? Like is it that they're getting pressure from Trump? Is it that they just don't want to defy him?

[00:14:27] Josh Shapiro: I think that's the fundamental question, right? Why are they rushing to do this and screw over the people that actually voted for this president and voted for them? I mean, I think that that is the fundamental question here. Why are they doing this? And look, I mean, to my fellow Pennsylvanias, I, I might not agree with their vote for president back in 2024.

[00:14:50] I. But these are my fellow Pennsylvanians. They're hardworking people who are working to put food on the table, build opportunity for themselves and their families. They don't deserve this. And you know what? They relied on a promise. Donald Trump and those running with him made in the campaign a promise not to cut Medicaid, a promise to create energy jobs, not cut them.

[00:15:13] A promise to protect the interests of rural Pennsylvania. And now they're going back on that they're, they're, they're really being betrayed by Donald Trump. I, I mean, this is not a popular bill. This is a bill that would harm a whole lot of people. I don't know why they're doing it. 'cause at the end of the day, the only people that win here are the people at the highest income levels.

[00:15:38] Are getting a tax cut here who frankly don't need it, especially right now.

[00:15:42] David Sirota: Now your political opponents arguably have been pretty, pretty harsh. Uh, your, the governor's mansion was, was set on fire. Uh, a state legislator in another state was just murdered. And I think about this a lot because of course, I mean, it's terrible for the country.

[00:15:59] I mean, I, I'm married to a state legislator, so it's--

[00:16:02] Josh Shapiro: Yeah.

[00:16:02] David Sirota: --scary. I'm sure it's scary for you. The question is in the context of a bill like this. I wonder how much you think fear plays a part here, that there's political violence in the air, at least the threat of it, uh, and that you saw Tom Tillis the, uh, North Carolina senator who stood up against this bill and then is now resigning or retiring.

[00:16:22] Uh, I just wonder how much you think this, this sort of, I. Intimidating environment is what Trump relies on to keep, uh, the political pressure on and keep his Republicans in line.

[00:16:34] Josh Shapiro: Yeah, look, separating it out, separating out political violence from political intimidation. I. Right by the president because I think it's important to, to distinguish between the two.

[00:16:46] Um, I've been a victim of political violence. Um, it is not okay, uh, by anyone, against anyone. It is just simply not okay. And it needs to be universally condemned and we need to work together to stop it. I think that's a separate question than the, the issue of putting this extraordinary political.

[00:17:05] Pressure on different elected officials, and Donald Trump has done that to his fellow Republicans. It's driving some, you know. Out of office like Tom Tillis, who seems to be, um, a genuine conservative lawmaker. I mean, someone you and I would disagree with on a lot of issues, but seems to hold those views, you know, genuinely and, and, and with great thought.

[00:17:28] Um, I think it's dangerous when you have, I. Lawmakers who seemingly are pledging allegiance to Donald Trump instead of pledging allegiance to the flag of the United States and honoring their oath of office when instead they seem to just be honoring, uh, the, the whims of Donald Trump. I think that is really dangerous, and I think if you go and pull these lawmakers.

[00:17:51] Who voted for it in the house and those who are about to vote for it in the Senate. If they got you in a quiet moment, they'd share with you that they think this is bad policy, that it's bad to knock people off of Medicaid. They would share with you that it's bad, that increase the national deficit by $3.3 trillion.

[00:18:12] I mean, remember. This is the party that used to run around talking about being deficit hawks. They're now the ones who are adding far more to the deficit than Democrats are. I'm sick and tired of Republicans arguing that they are the party of fiscal responsibility. That's complete utter bullshit if this becomes law.

[00:18:29] 'cause all they're doing is they are attaching to your kids and my kids. Far less freedom, far less opportunity, a whole lot more bills to pay because they're doing what Donald Trump is telling them to do right now. That's really dangerous.

[00:18:46] David Sirota: Last question is, what do you think the lasting political effects of this will be?

[00:18:50] Is this, is this one of those horrible bills that passes and then like 15 minutes later everyone forgets? Or do you think this is something. People 'cause 'cause some of the polls suggest people don't exactly know what's in, in this bill. I'm just curious if you think people will remember it.

[00:19:03] Josh Shapiro: I mean, here's the thing, David, I, I'm not a pundit, I, I'll leave the analysis to you, but I know that if you're someone that today relies on Medicaid to get your healthcare because you're working, but you can't make enough, or you're disabled and you lose access to healthcare, you're gonna remember this.

[00:19:23] If you're someone who's hungry. Who stresses when they go to bed at night because your, the child that they just tucked in, uh, has an empty belly. I mean, you know, imagine what that feels like as a parent and, and the lifeline that you have right now is snap and you're getting that taken away from you.

[00:19:43] You're gonna remember this if, if you're someone who lives in a rural community. Let's say someone who never gets sick but lives in a rural community and, and the most important employer in your community is that hospital and you lose your job because that hospital has to shutter. You're sure as hell gonna remember this if you're one of those 26,000 union trades people and others who work in energy and you can't put food on the table for your family anymore because the project you were banking on for the next decade just got slashed.

[00:20:16] You're gonna remember that. So look, do I know what the. Political effects are gonna be, I don't, but I know a whole lot of Pennsylvanians are about to get harmed by this or about to get screwed by this and they're gonna remember that.

[00:20:30] David Sirota: Governor Josh Shapiro, thanks so much for taking time today. Great to be with you, David.

[00:20:33] Thank you. Thanks man, appreciate it. Alright, I'll talk to you later. Alright, man. Take care. Thanks man. Bye bye. Thanks for listening to another episode of Lever Time. Lever Time is part of the Lever's Investigative Newsroom, and distributed by PRX. This episode was written by me, David Sirota. And produced by Jared Jacang Maher and edited by Ron Doyle.

[00:20:53] Our theme music was composed by Nick Campbell. We'll be back next week with another episode of Lever Time.