REINCheck

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VO [00:00:06] You're listening to REINCheck with Andrea Rice, Contracts and Industry Specialists at REIN, where you get the latest member news and information delivered straight from the source, REIN MLS.

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Andrea Rice [00:00:20] Hello and welcome to REINCheck. I am your host, Andrea Rice, and today we are checking in with REIN's Data Specialist Josh Garbin for a discussion and midyear stats to see how the 2023 housing market is shaping up here in Hampton Roads. Josh, thank you so much for taking time out of your busy schedule to be here today.

Josh Garbin [00:00:40] Thank you, Andrea. I'm glad to be here.

Andrea Rice [00:00:42] Yes, always glad to have you here. You know, we generally try to do a mid-year update on our stats and end of year so really just happy to have you. And can you just start by giving us a bit of a mid-year update? You know, what are the numbers telling us? How do these numbers compare to where we were when you were here in December?

Josh Garbin [00:01:03] Absolutely. So, May 2023, we saw about 2,500 sales. Year to date, that gives us about 10,012 sales. What I found interesting was when you break down those sales, the 10,000 sales, 8,826 were resales, and 1,186 were new construction. The last time we saw levels like these were in 2016 and 2017 around the same time. If you look at December of last year, just for the month, there were about 2,004 sales. So, when we're comparing it to now, last month in May, that's about 25%, 24.75% increase. To break down those specific sales in December, there were 1,700 resale and 200 new construction. When you look at March in 2023, there were 2,277 sales. So that is a 9% increase when you're looking at May of 2023. And of those sales back in March, 1,981 were resale, and 296 were new construction. So, sales are up even if it's just a slight increase in some cases when you're comparing monthly sales. There's a number called MSI, which we will be going over a little bit later. To calculate this number, there's something called the absorption rate that we used to calculate it. This is basically the rolling 12-month average number of sales, and that rate sits at 2,341.33. So, we'll call it 2341.

Andrea Rice [00:02:31] Yeah. Interesting. So, everything you know is up and that's good. And we often talk about the resale stats. You know, when you come on here and you give us the updates. But the rental market has been changing really rapidly over the past couple of years and the past year in particularly. So, I was wondering if, you know, this time around, can you give us a glimpse of what is going on with the rental market, maybe where things were in December and March and where they are now as far as rentals are concerned?

Josh Garbin [00:03:02] Absolutely. So, I took a look at some of the numbers, and in December 2022, there were 699 rental listings that were entered and 547 that were marked as rented. That is not a 1 to 1 ratio. Those are just the numbers that I happen to find. In March 2023, there were 838 rental listings that were entered and 770 that were marked as rented. And last month, May 2023, there were 821 rental listings entered and 717 that were marked as rented. So, when you take a look year over year, that's about 22% year to date. We're taking a look at it and it looks like we had about 3769 entered and 3407 rented. You compare that to December 2022, which is all of 2022. So, you're going to have a couple more, lot more months added. There were 8,417 entered and 7,010 rented. So, as you can see, when you're comparing to last year, the numbers are up. And when you look at May 2023 versus December and March, taking a look at all three of those months, May 2023 to versus December 2022, it's up 17.45%. And I think that's just because it's the end of the year. And then when you're looking at May versus March, it's only down about 2.02%. But that's a difference of 17 listings. What this is saying is there's overall growth in the rental market. And just as a reminder, please enter rentals into the MLS system that way you get credit and we can have better tracking on what's going on.

Andrea Rice [00:04:38] Yes. And rentals are mandatory to be input into the system. And that's just a reminder, because, yes, the more data we have, the more accurate it is and the better for everyone. So, Josh, do you see any statistical patterns that emerge when you look at the overall data?

Josh Garbin [00:04:59] I was taking a look at days on market and median days on market, DOM, for May 2023 was 11 days. Typically, May and the summer months see a lower DOM as the market is entering the quote-unquote busy season. As we've all learned these past two years, haven't really been normal. A couple of moments ago, I spoke on MSI. That is the month's supply of inventory and essentially that is a marker of the health of the market. MSI is how long it would take to sell all the homes if there are no new listings entered as of like the moment that we track it. So MSI last month was 1.37 and it's been above 1.0 since about April of 2022. When you take a look at the MSI, we consider it to be the health of the market, an MSI or month's supply of inventory of 6 to 7 is considered a balanced market. Anything above that is considered a buyer's market where inventory is higher than demand and anything below that is considered a seller's market, where the inventory is lower than demand can meet. And the market right now is what we're considering a strong seller's market. Now, we talked about absorption rate earlier. It seems that we are meeting those numbers based on sales on average monthly. One other factor to calculate that number is the number of active listings. So, when active listings are down, it's no wonder we're seeing the MSI being so low.

Andrea Rice [00:06:20] Yeah, and it's been low for quite a while. That's really interesting. And thank you for really describing what month's supply of inventory is for those that might not know and the days on market, that's all really to me that's very interesting information to look at. And so, you're a stats guy. You know, that's what you do. But how can our members use stats to set themselves apart? Like, do you have any insight into how these numbers can translate? Right. Can translate into the real world for them. How they can use the stats?

Josh Garbin [00:06:58] Yes. If you understand the numbers, you understand the market. So, you can add these to your listing presentations and they can really help anybody to stand out because they could show that they understand the market, and the market is very rapid in the past few years and in most current stats is more valuable now than ever. REIN provides tools like Domus Analytics to get real-time stats. Learning how to customize these statistics for your buyers and sellers and showcase the information in easy-to-digest formats can really help set you apart from the competition.

Andrea Rice [00:07:33] Yes. You know, great points, and especially, you know, with Domus Analytics I know we've done a separate podcast on that in the past. It really has some great visuals that you can show to your buyers and sellers. So, you know, that's all part of your what you get with your REIN membership. So be sure to check that out. Josh, do you have anything else that you would like to add before we sign off? Any parting thoughts, tips for our members? Anything?

Josh Garbin [00:08:01] Absolutely, on REINMLS.com there are multiple ways to access stats. We offer stats that are run by us at REIN as well as products to run your own stats. The ones that you can run your own stats is called Domus Analytics, which you just spoke on. It's available on REINMLS.com, but there's also options to run stats in Matrix. And of course, if you have any questions, please reach out to REIN's Product Support Department and we'll be happy to answer any of them.

Andrea Rice [00:08:25] Thank you, Josh. I always appreciate you taking the time to come on and give us, you know, an end-of-year and mid-year update. So, thank you again. We'll have you on again at the end of the year and see where things are at then. And thank all of you for listening. I hope you enjoyed this episode of ReINCheck. If you missed any of the previous episodes, I do invite you to go to REINMLS.com and take a listen. And if you have not done so already, please subscribe to REINCheck so that you can get new episodes delivered directly to you when they are released. Thank you and have a great rest of your day.

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VO [00:08:56] You've been listening to REINCheck with Andrea Rice. Stay in the know from those who know. Delivered straight from the source, REIN MLS.

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